Econometric Semiconductor Forecast
Forecasting Semiconductors: A Demand-Driven Approach
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast (ESF) is the first semiconductor industry forecasting service to use rigorous state of the art global GDP macroeconomic models to provide quarterly forecasts with monthly updates, allowing forecast recipients to plan for short-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry. The ESF uses a proven macroeconomic forecasting tool that incorporates measures of economic uncertainty, global economic shocks, and regional volatility to develop a Silicon area forecast for the global semiconductor industry.
The forecast provides subscribers with monthly updates of quarterly forecasts of total semiconductor production in Million Square Inches(MSI) of silicon processed.
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is based on an advanced econometric forecasting model developed by Duncan Meldrum, business economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, in conjunction with Linx Consulting. The model is based on a demand-driven equation that captures >98% of the long run variation in semiconductors and includes:
- Global real GDP growth (from consensus forecasts)
- US consumer and business spending on technology goods
- Inventory-shipments ratio, computer & electronics
- Financial crisis shock indicator to capture panic behavior in latest cycle
Forecast Reporting Schedule
The ESF has two key deliverables released on a periodic basis:
- Quarterly Forecasts — 4 times per year (in February, May, August, November)
- Monthly Updates — 8 times per year in the remaining months
Publishing Schedule
| Output | Release Date |
| January monthly update | 4th week of January |
| 1Q Quarterly Forecast | 4th week of February |
| March monthly update | 4th week of March |
| April monthly update | 4th week of April |
| 2Q Quarterly Forecast | 4th week of May |
| June monthly update | 4th week of June |
| July monthly update | 4th week of July |
| 3Q Quarterly Forecast | 4th week of August |
| September monthly update | 4th week of September |
| October monthly update | 4th week of October |
| 4Q Quarterly Forecast | 4th week of November |
| December monthly update | 4th week of December |