Equipment Econometric Forecasting Service

The semiconductor industry is facing numerous challenges with new technologies, qualifications of raw materials, environment regulations, geo-political climate, etc. These market and production uncertainties are impacting the leading-edge material developers. To address key target issues and concerns, Linx Consulting is proud to introduce the new Semiconductor Equipment Econometric Forecast Service (EEF).  This service compliments the Linx Electronic Semiconductor Forecast Service (ESF) which combined presents real world global conditions that will allow you to fully understand the overall front-end equipment demand and supply environment.  The Services include a specifically-tuned corresponding Fab Equipment Model.

The Equipment Econometric Forecast (EEF) Service will forecast the future direction of the semiconductor equipment sales over the next 5 years as well by each quarter. The forecasting methodology combines more than 50 contemporaneous data series to produce an econometric based model of Fab Equipment Demand. Inputs include global real GDP key components of investment and consumption; demand for technology goods including PCs and smartphones; consumer and business behavioral responses to the forecast economic back-drop; and semiconductor industry factors such as MSI demand, supply chain pressures and announced capacity expansions. Feedback mechanisms and additional variables that capture noneconomic factors complete the EEF model system. Besides informing the forecast, the model provides levers for creating alternative forecasts and scenarios that may be helpful at turning points in economic activity. Historic data is sourced from the SEMI Equipment Market Data Service (EMDS) database. Please note subscribers do need to possess a license for this SEMI market data product in order to receive the EEF service.

Additionally, the macroeconomic forecasts are developed from individual country forecasts presented in the monthly Consensus Forecasts publications and adjusted for the latest developments by Hilltop Economics. This methodology has produced very accurate forecasts where the average one and four-quarter-ahead error for the past ten years is -1.0%. The average eight-quarter-ahead forecast error is an even lower -0.3%, indicating short-term errors tend to even out and the forecasting technique proves remarkably accurate over longer periods of time.